Approach

Our three scenarios are inspired by our conversations with nearly 80 leaders. The bulk of these leaders are from business, but we also spoke with policymakers, experts and civil society leaders. A sample is below.

From this rich pool of insights, we identified over 70 drivers of the near-term future. We then selected the drivers that we thought would have the highest but most uncertain impact on our world in 2025, and built three stories out of them.

These three scenarios – provocative but plausible views of 2025 – cover the good, the bad and the ugly of what could lie ahead. They are not predictions or visions but tools to shed light on what future we want and what we as business leaders need to do, now, to get there.

Why business leaders? They have enormous resources at their disposal – capital, talent and indispensable know-how. And, here in Europe, business leaders virtually all hold this belief: no company can be truly competitive unless its revenue- and profit-generation moves society forward.

  • Alejandra Kindelán Oteyza - Head of Research and Public Policy - Santander

    Alejandra Kindelán Oteyza

    Head of research and public policy, Santander

  • Alex Lankester, Partnerships director, WWF UK

    Alex Lankester

    Partnerships director, WWF UK

  • Dr. Amy Hochadel - Director - Connected Places Catapult

    Dr. Amy Hochadel

    Director, Connected Places Catapult

  • Anab Jain, Co-founder and creative director, Superflux

    Anab Jain

    Founder and director, Superflux

  • Åsa Pettersson, Head of public affairs and sustainability, Scania

    Åsa Pettersson

    Head of public affairs and sustainability, Scania

  • Camilla Palladino, Executive vice president, corporate strategy and investor relations, Snam

    Camilla Palladino

    Executive vice president, corporate strategy and investor relations, Snam

  • Catherine MacGregor - President - Technip Energies

    Catherine MacGregor

    CEO, Engie

  • Christian Rynning-Tønnesen, President and CEO, Statkraft

    Christian Rynning-Tønnesen

    President and CEO, Statkraft

  • Clare Barclay, CEO, Microsoft UK

    Clare Barclay

    CEO, Microsoft UK

  • Dagmar van der Plas, Sustainability manager, financial health lead, ING

    Dagmar van der Plas

    Sustainability manager, financial health lead, ING

  • Deborah Frieze - Co-Founder and President - Boston Impact Initiative

    Deborah Frieze

    Co-founder and president, Boston Impact Initiative

  • Dev Sanyal

    Dev Sanyal

    EVP, gas and low-carbon energy, BP

  • Eleni Kampouri, Postdoctoral research fellow, University of Hertfordshire

    Eleni Kampouri

    Postdoctoral research fellow, University of Hertfordshire

  • Eva Karlsson, CEO, Houdini Sportswear

    Eva Karlsson

    CEO, Houdini Sportswear

  • Fiona Dowson, Sustainability consultant, food systems and supply chains

    Fiona Dowson

    Sustainability consultant, food systems and supply chains

  • Florence Gaub, Deputy director, European Union Institute for Security Studies

    Florence Gaub

    Deputy director, European Union Institute for Security Studies

  • Håkon Haugli, CEO, Innovation Norway

    Håkon Haugli

    CEO, Innovation Norway

  • Hans Vestberg

    Hans Vestberg

    CEO, Verizon

  • Hein Schumacher, CEO, Royal FrieslandCampina

    Hein Schumacher

    CEO, Royal FrieslandCampina

  • Henri Proglio - Former CEO - EDF Energy

    Henri Proglio

    Former CEO, EDF Energy

  • Henrik Henriksson

    Henrik Henriksson

    CEO, Scania

  • Henrik Madsen - Board Member - Aker Solutions

    Henrik O. Madsen

    Chairman, Aker Carbon Capture and Aker Offshore Wind

  • Huibert Vigeveno

    Huibert Vigeveno

    Downstream director, Shell

  • Iain Watt, Consultant, climate change

    Iain Watt

    Consultant, climate change

  • Ingrid Kylstad, COO, Katapult Ocean

    Ingrid Kylstad

    Chief operating officer, Katapult Ocean

  • Jaco du Toit, Senior advocacy advisor, WWF UK

    Jaco du Toit

    Senior advocacy advisor, WWF UK

  • Jeremy Bentham, Vice president, global business environment and head of scenarios, Shell

    Jeremy Bentham

    Vice president, global business environment and head of scenarios, Shell

  • Jeremy Hillman, Director, corporate communications, The World Bank

    Jeremy Hillman

    Director, corporate communications, The World Bank

  • Jeremy Leggett - Founder and Chair - Solar Century

    Jeremy Leggett

    Founder and chair, Solar Century

  • Jochen Thewes, Chairman and CEO, DB Schenker

    Jochen Thewes

    Chairman and CEO, DB Schenker

  • John Renard, President, portfolio business unit and EMEA, Cyient

    John Renard

    President, portfolio business unit and EMEA, Cyient

  • Sir Jonathon Porritt, Founder Director, Forum for the Future

    Sir Jonathon Porritt

    Founder director, Forum for the Future

  • John-Arne Røttingen - Chief Executive - Research Council Norway

    Prof. John-Arne Røttingen

    Ambassador for Global Health, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway

  • Jonas Prising - CEO - Manpower

    Jonas Prising

    CEO, ManpowerGroup

  • Jonas Samuelson, CEO, Electrolux

    Jonas Samuelson

    CEO, Electrolux

  • Karl Johnny Hersvik, CEO, Aker BP

    Karl Johnny Hersvik

    CEO, Aker BP

  • Katherine Garrett-Cox CBE, CEO, Gulf International Bank UK

    Katherine Garrett-Cox CBE

    CEO, Gulf International Bank UK

  • Prof. Kevin Noone, Professor, department of environmental science, Stockholm University

    Kevin Noone

    Professor, department of environmental science, Stockholm University

  • Kjerstin Braathen - CEO - DNB ASA

    Kjerstin Braathen

    CEO, DNB ASA

  • Krishna Bodanapu, Managing director and CEO, Cyient

    Krishna Bodanapu

    Managing director and CEO, Cyient

  • Leif Johansson

    Leif Johansson

    Chairman, AstraZeneca

  • Linda Ingolfsdottir, Strategy lead, fair jobs, H&M

    Linda Ingolfsdottir

    Strategy lead, fair jobs, H&M

  • Lorenzo Simonelli, Chairman and CEO, Baker Hughes

    Lorenzo Simonelli

    Chairman and CEO, Baker Hughes

  • Dr. Marc Thom, Venture capital senior investment manager, Sony

    Dr. Marc Thom

    Venture capital senior investment manager, Sony

  • Marco Alverà, CEO, Snam

    Marco Alverà

    CEO, Snam

  • Mark Barnett, President, Europe, Mastercard

    Mark Barnett

    President, Mastercard Europe

  • Mark Cutifani, CEO, Anglo American

    Mark Cutifani

    CEO, Anglo American

  • Martin Skancke, Chairman, Principles for Responsible Investment

    Martin Skancke

    Chairman, Principles for Responsible Investment

  • Mats Rahmström, President and CEO, Atlas Copco

    Mats Rahmström

    President and CEO, Atlas Copco

  • Michael Miebach - President and CEO-Elect - Mastercard

    Michael Miebach

    CEO, Mastercard

  • Mirja Bastian, Consultant and people lead, TLGG Consulting

    Mirja Bastian

    Consultant and people lead, TLGG Consulting

  • N Chandra

    N. Chandrasekaran

    Chairman, Tata Sons

  • Natachia Antonis, Chief human resources officer, The Berner Group

    Natachia Antonis

    Chief human resources officer, The Berner Group

  • Pablo Barrera Lopez, Executive vice president, strategy and communications, Yara

    Pablo Barrera Lopez

    Executive vice president, strategy and communications, Yara

  • Dr. Peter Drobac - Director of the Skoll Centre for Social Entrepreneurship - University of Oxford

    Peter Drobac

    Director, Skoll Centre for Social Entrepreneurship, University of Oxford

  • Peter Voser, Chairman, ABB

    Peter Voser

    Chairman, ABB

  • Rainer Kiefer, Executive vice president, global head of sales, DB Schenker

    Rainer Kiefer

    EVP, global head of sales, DB Schenker

  • Remi Eriksen, President and CEO, DNV GL

    Remi Eriksen

    President and CEO, DNV GL

  • Richard Miller, associate director, Connected Places Catapult

    Richard Miller

    Associate director, Connected Places Catapult

  • Rick Haythornthwaite, Chairman-elect, Ocado

    Rick Haythornthwaite

    Chairman-elect, Ocado

  • Rosa Lind, Leadership and change manager, Ingka Group

    Rosa Lind

    Leadership and change manager, Ingka Group

  • Sallie Calhoun, Founder, No Regrets Initiative

    Sallie Calhoun

    Founder, No Regrets Initiative

  • Sam Daws, Director, Project on UN Governance and Reform, University of Oxford

    Sam Daws

    Director, project on UN governance and reform, University of Oxford

  • Sampath Sowmyanarayan, President, global enterprise, Verizon

    Sampath Sowmyanarayan

    President, global enterprise, Verizon

  • Sandie Okoro - SVP and General Counsel - World Bank

    Dr. Sandie Okoro

    Senior vice president and general counsel, World Bank

  • Sofie Nyström, Strategy lead, inclusion and diversity, H&M

    Sofie Nyström

    Strategy lead, inclusion and diversity, H&M

  • Svein_Tore Holsether - CEO - Yara

    Svein Tore Holsether

    CEO, Yara

  • Tarja Halonen

    H.E. Tarja Halonen

    Former president of Finland

  • Thomas Ball, Head of partnerships, WWF UK

    Thomas Ball

    Head of partnerships, WWF UK

  • Thomas Thune Andersen, Chairman, Ørsted

    Thomas Thune Andersen

    Chairman, Ørsted

  • Thorhild Widvey

    Thorhild Widvey

    Former minister of energy, Norway

  • Tone Hansen - Director - Arts Council Norway

    Tone Hansen

    Director, Arts Council Norway

  • Ulrike Haugen, Executive vice president & chief communications officer, DNV GL

    Ulrike Haugen

    Chief communications officer, DNV GL

  • Vidar Helgesen, Executive Director, The Nobel Foundation

    Vidar Helgesen

    Executive director, The Nobel Foundation

  • Dr. Wolfgang Schüssel - Former Chancellor of Austria

    Dr. Wolfgang Schüssel

    Former chancellor of Austria

  • Fellow, Harvard University

    Yves Daccord

    Fellow, Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society, Harvard University